"The Revolution Will Not Be Televised"

While laptops and fists flew through the Asamblea Nacional after opposition lawmakers unfurled a banner to protest their silencing, the C-SPAN of Venezuelan politics censored itself and turned its cameras to the ceiling. The view of the ceiling was then interrupted by an anti-HCR hit piece. The fallout in the short term is spilled blood and black eyes. Long term, the government of Nicolas Maduro further reveals itself to be without credibility and dangerously unqualified to lead, let alone engage in the dialogue they claim to seek.



Video of course has found its way online and it is important to mention that the fight occurred on the opposition side of the aisle, which indicates that diputados del oficialismo marched across the room like an angry mob.

Caracas Chronicles contemplates what the last weeks of political violence mean for the opposition.

When everyone is a fascist, is anyone a fascist?

Venezuelans on both sides of the political divide have spent the last frenetic days calling each other fascists. Nothing novel about this, other than the increased frequency. But banging on pots and pans (and now bumping salsa at full blast) in protest is one thing. Beating up opposition politicians and stripping them of their right to speak unless they recognize Maduro as president is quite another. Pictured above is William Davila, deputy of the National Assembly and former governor for Merida. His face was smashed with a microphone this week by others in the assembly. Then, President of the Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, refused to let opposition lawmakers speak and stripped them of their committee posts.

So does one side have a point? I refer to Merriam-Webster. Fascism; a political philosophy, movement, or regime that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition

Capriles Goes to the Powerpoint to Prove Fraud

Capriles presented these slides at his press conference today para destacar his fraud allegations. To me, the most compelling slide is number two, which shows that Maduro somewhat incredulously chalked up more votes on Sunday than Chavez did on October 7 in a total of 1,176 different polling places out of 13,638 . As a frame of reference, Chavez received about 600,000 more votes in October than Maduro's nearly 7.6 million votes. In some of these centers Maduro racked up 943, 530, and 493% more votes than "Cristo Chavez."

Opposition & National Guard Face Off in Merida Near Election Office

Credit: Jose Antonio Rivas Leone for noticias24.com

Capriles...

"Yo no pacto con la ilegitimidad."

Capriles...

"Usted es el derrotado, usted y su gobierno."

Ni Treinta Segundos Despues...

Not even 30 seconds after CNE chief Tibisay Lucena handed the election to Maduro by 235,000 votes, out of more than 15 million cast, Maduro took the stage blabbing about "el cristo Chavez" and the capture of Colombians sneaking into the country to wreak havoc. Señores y señoras, Venezuela is run by a mad man.

Is their a lightswitch for this?

Venezuelan VP, Jore Arreaza, explains just why the internet was shut off within the country, on election day no less, for several minutes. "Foreign conspirators." Is Anonymous sticking it to the Bolivarian Republic? Nevertheless, talk about awesome power. Right up there with the superhero power to be invisible.

Compatriotas no hay problemas con internet. Calma!! Fue una maniobra breve para impedir más hackeos conspiradores del exterior.

— Jorge Arreaza (@jaarreaza) April 14, 2013

Para el pueblo venozalano

Deep thoughts...

If Chavez lost would he have gotten a cadena?

Chavez for 6 more

7,444,082 votes to 6,151,544.

54%-45%.

Venezuela votes, cont.

All elections are a choice. Will Venezuela choose the Brazilian model proposed by Capriles? Francisco Toro takes to the NYT:

"Brazil’s remarkable success in reducing poverty speaks for itself. Building on a foundation of macroeconomic stability and stable democratic institutions, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, oversaw the most remarkable period of social mobility in Latin America’s living memory.

As millions of Brazilians rose into the middle class, Mr. Chávez’s autocratic excesses came to look unnecessary and inexcusable to Venezuelans. Mr. da Silva and his successor, Dilma Rousseff, have shown that a country does not need to stack the courts, purge the army and politicize the central bank to fight poverty. Brazil proves that point, quietly, day in and day out."

Venezuela votes, cont.

Como van las cosas hoy? From a friend in Caracas...

"Hasta ahora todo bien, alta participación y pocas irregularidades. Las mesas cierran en dos horas, esperamos comenzar a saber resultados preliminares en 4 o 5 horas.

Gracias por estar pendiente, un abrazo!"

Venezuela votes

...In New Orleans. When Venezuela shuttered its consulate in Miami, New Orleans became the closest polling place for Florida's 20,00 Venezuelans

The Underdog: Latest take on Chavez v. Capriles

From Juan Nagel of Caracas Chronicles, via Foreign Policy:

"Let's recap: We have a 14-year incumbent who is favored to win but is barely campaigning. We have a strong challenger closing the gap, but not quite there yet. We have opinion polls giving wildly differing predictions, and a public sphere where unimportant things dominate the narrative while crucial issues are left by the wayside."

Why debate if the fix is already in?

Venezuelan opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski, keeps up the pressure on Chavez to debate. Chavez keeps up his refusal. Just 17 days until election day.

Chavez's first campaign spot

First impression: where's Chavez, still in Cuba? Oh, there he is at :53. What appears at first to be an attempt to hide the candidate with the faces of ordinary Venezuelans staring hopefully into the mirror, pastoral images, arepas, and lanchitas turns into the typical 'cult of personality' thing with Chavez's name and face everywhere.

Second impression: the spot is completely positive and at nearly 3 minutes, probably a record for anything Chavez related. The refrain, "siempre te voy a amar" is clearly meant to demonstrate the bond between the president and his country. HCR has some nerve attempting to interject himself between a man and the country that loves him so. I imagine it's a very effective ad, but not if it's just on YouTube.

Consultores 21 Poll: Chavez 46%, Capriles 45%

One sector of the Venezuelan economy that has thrived during the Chavez era are shady fly-by- night polling firms. The poll results are predictably unreliable. Consultores 21 is a stand-up polling firm with almost 40 years in the business. So their poll, calling the race a statistical dead heat, is big news.

Qué tan enfermo está Chávez?

Is he dying? Is there a succession plan? Will he be able to campaign? Chavez isn't saying much.

Tal vez solo Dios lo sabe.

Get familiar with this guy

On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to elevate Chavez's challenger from a diverse slate of opposition candidates for the October 7 election. Even though pro-government pundits forecast a turn-out of 900,000, nearly 3 million people, some threatened with losing their job, turned out to vote.

They chose Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39-year old current governor of Miranda, Venezuela's second-most populous state, former mayor of a large Caracas suburb and former diputado. Capriles also earned his opposition cred by serving a 4 month term as a political prisoner on false charges.

HCR emerges as the leader of the most well-organized, and frankly most credible, opposition that Chavez has encountered since taking power 13 years ago. Moreover, he won with over 62% of the vote in a field of 5 candidates by maintaining a moderate tone relative to some of the more radical anti-Chavez candidates. In fact, he's mentioned Lula as a model for his own governing style.

Defeating Chavez, who maintains an approval-rating of near 60%, and a deeply passionate faction of support will not be easy. The odds are not in Capriles' favor, especially considering the government's tactics of intimidation by fiat and brute force. Nevertheless, this election will be incredibly informative on many levels about Venezuela's toleration for one-man rule and a sky-rocketing crime rate vs. an alternative narrative of pragmatism and the rule of law.

Ed. note: As mentioned before, a great starting point for the ins and outs of the election is the admittedly pro-opposition blog, Caracas Chronicles.