"The Revolution Will Not Be Televised"

While laptops and fists flew through the Asamblea Nacional after opposition lawmakers unfurled a banner to protest their silencing, the C-SPAN of Venezuelan politics censored itself and turned its cameras to the ceiling. The view of the ceiling was then interrupted by an anti-HCR hit piece. The fallout in the short term is spilled blood and black eyes. Long term, the government of Nicolas Maduro further reveals itself to be without credibility and dangerously unqualified to lead, let alone engage in the dialogue they claim to seek.



Video of course has found its way online and it is important to mention that the fight occurred on the opposition side of the aisle, which indicates that diputados del oficialismo marched across the room like an angry mob.

Caracas Chronicles contemplates what the last weeks of political violence mean for the opposition.

Opposition & National Guard Face Off in Merida Near Election Office

Credit: Jose Antonio Rivas Leone for noticias24.com

All Chavez, all the time

President in waiting, Nicolas Maduro: "Chavez, Chavez, Chavez..."

'Se cayó el sistema'

Recuerda '88.

Fear the PRI

The view of Aguachile's blogger, worth reading in full:

"I don't share the optimism. I truly fear for Mexico's democracy. I may well be wrong and I hope I am, but one doesn't have to look very deeply at Enrique Peña Nieto's trajectory to find a man who represents every one of PRI's vices in the past: Collusion with the media, steamrolling of the opposition, blatant institutional engineering (Ley Peña-why on earth has the media forgotten about this?), cover-up of corruption, mediocre social programs, clientelism, and lest we forget, outright authoritarianism. There is much more, but this is only from the past few years of his Mexico State government. The past days, more and more stuff is simply seeping to the surface.

This is a man who went to Oaxaca in 2010 to actively stump for a murderous repressor and scoundrel, Ulises Ruiz, when he tried to impose his PRI successor, and on whose campaign trail in Puebla had the pedophile-protecting Mario Marín appear at his campaign events...

Yet it is not only about one man, Peña Nieto - and I hold him in a very low regard - but of a party as well, which has shown absolutely no indication it has changed. I don't think this is demagoguery; there are many good priístas just like there are good people in any party. But a party carries within it an imprint that it is very, very hard to rid itself of. And looking at how PRI and their thugs acted in the 2010 and 2011 state elections, I fear for Mexico's democracy should they return to executive powers, backed by legislative majorities. They won't be easily removed."

'El voto es libre y secreto'; election day news

Six years ago I was in Mexico as an accredited electoral observer with Alianza Civica and Global Exchange. After several days of activities in Mexico City my team set out for San Luis Potosi, making sure to pick up some beer before la ley seca went into effect. Despite viewing deliveries of building materials, like cinder blocks, and hearing of cash payouts intended to buy votes, election day in our little area was smooth and uneventful. The next several weeks were of course anything but uneventful.

Today we've got one eye on election day developments from Los Angeles with the other on Spain v. Italy. Here are the best reads that I've gotten through today.

The Financial Times has published this useful preview. LA native, Daniel Hernandez, gives a great summary of the #yosoy132 movement here and a rundown on AMLO's second bid here.

The ins and outs of the last couple of weeks, including the lamentable capture of some young guy who's not Chapo Guzman's son and Pena-Nieto's attempts to woo the SNTE, are detailed here.

Finally, here's the Guardian's major investigative piece on the collusion between Televisa and Pena-Nieto's campaign to distort public opinion in his favor through uncritical and favorable coverage. Televisa's response and the Guardian's rather devastating reply are here and here.

Pero Que Ondas en Paraguay?

I'm not an expert on Paraguayan constitutional law, but I've always had something of a curiosity for this land-locked country that is just about the last place on earth that the NY Times Travel section has yet to write a story about.

In the span of 48 hours, Fernando Lugo, Paraguay's ex-bishop turned president was impeached from office and replaced with his antagonistic vice-president. The political crisis reached a tipping point when a police operation to evict landless squatters off a big ranch went bad, leaving 17 people dead. The sitting president was given just 2 hours (his request for 18 days was rejected) to present his defense in the Senate before that body voted 39-4 to remove him failing to sufficiently fulfill his presidential duties. The region's governments, both ALBA/Chavez aligned and more conservative (Chile and Colombia) have recalled their ambassadors and committed other diplomatic snubs to show their displeasure. Notably, Venezuela has said that it will halt oil exports which add up to about 25% of its total supply. This regional pressure can be chalked up the fact that Lugo has been aligned with South America's leftist leaders. But I think that fact doesn't fully explain the growing strength of Mercosur/Unasur as a check on anti-democratic practices.

I watched a few minutes of Telefuturo to learn how the story was playing out locally. What I saw was a political round-table of like-minded anti-Lugo commentators who seemed to be acutely sensitive to the regional condemnation of this express-impeachment, especially criticism from Brazil which exerts a good deal of influence on the country. They went so far to show live traffic camera of Ascuncion in order to refute a Brazilian column that claimed the streets of the capital were empty. Talk about thin skin.

"The Walton Way?" How Wal-Mart became Mexico's largest retailer

Investigative journalism at its very best, making the complex and attenuated coherent. As a side-note, I always wondered how Wal-Mart was able to plant its flag so close to Teotihuacan. I think we can now assume that some part of the alleged $24 million in bribes played a part.

"Haz patria, retira propaganda"

Mexican civil society activist and NGO leader, Daniel Gershenson, removes ubiquitous political 'advertising' in his Mexico City neighborhood, gets arrested, and builds a movement to pull down plastic political pollution. And like any upstanding citizen's movement in 2012, there's a Twitter hashtag #quitaunanuncio.

Arnaldo Kraus of El Universal, was prompted by Gershenson's actions to ask some questions:

A vuelapluma enlisto 13 preguntas. ¿Cuánto cuesta la basura electoral?, ¿quién la paga?, ¿cuánta se recicla?, ¿sirve?, ¿modifica la opinión pública?, ¿cuál es el destino de los plásticos, alambres, madera y el resto de los materiales utilizados?, ¿es lícito escribir estupideces en las bardas de la ciudad?, ¿el Instituto Federal Electoral o los partidos políticos deberían contar con la autorización de la ciudadanía para invadir la vía pública?, ¿quién hace la basura electoral: amigos, compinches, socios, u opositores políticos transmutados en rivales vendidos?, ¿tiene derecho la ciudadanía de quitar la contaminación visual?, ¿tiene derecho la patrulla P92-30, SSP-DF de detener a Daniel Gershenson por retirar la propaganda que afea y enferma a su ciudad?, ¿tenemos derecho los ciudadanos que pagamos impuestos de remover la basura electoral?, ¿deben respetar los partidos políticos la veda electoral (del 15 de febrero al 29 de marzo) y quitar su broza?

Kraus finishes off: "La basura electoral comparte similitudes con la mayoria de los politicos mexicanos. No sirve y (casi) nadie cree ni en ellos ni en la propaganda."

Get familiar with this guy

On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to elevate Chavez's challenger from a diverse slate of opposition candidates for the October 7 election. Even though pro-government pundits forecast a turn-out of 900,000, nearly 3 million people, some threatened with losing their job, turned out to vote.

They chose Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39-year old current governor of Miranda, Venezuela's second-most populous state, former mayor of a large Caracas suburb and former diputado. Capriles also earned his opposition cred by serving a 4 month term as a political prisoner on false charges.

HCR emerges as the leader of the most well-organized, and frankly most credible, opposition that Chavez has encountered since taking power 13 years ago. Moreover, he won with over 62% of the vote in a field of 5 candidates by maintaining a moderate tone relative to some of the more radical anti-Chavez candidates. In fact, he's mentioned Lula as a model for his own governing style.

Defeating Chavez, who maintains an approval-rating of near 60%, and a deeply passionate faction of support will not be easy. The odds are not in Capriles' favor, especially considering the government's tactics of intimidation by fiat and brute force. Nevertheless, this election will be incredibly informative on many levels about Venezuela's toleration for one-man rule and a sky-rocketing crime rate vs. an alternative narrative of pragmatism and the rule of law.

Ed. note: As mentioned before, a great starting point for the ins and outs of the election is the admittedly pro-opposition blog, Caracas Chronicles.

Dinged for "Stirring Public Anxiety"

The last of Venezuela's networks critical of Hugo Chavez's government has been fined over $2 million USD for their reporting on the Rodeo II prison riots. Globovision was sanctioned under articulo numero 27 de la Ley de Responsibilidad Social de Radio y Television for, among other things, "failing to transmit the government's point of view in a timely manner."

The June standoff between the military and prisoners, which led to the deaths of 22 people, was a massive crisis for the Venezuelan government and an international black eye which focused attention on the hellish conditions of the country's prisons. The government did not officially comment on the riots until the six days had passed and have disputed independent reports about the number killed, among other key facts.

The principal government response in the aftermath of the riots was to appoint a new prisons chief, an observably unstable legislator and close confidante of Chavez, who promptly ordered wardens to suspend all prisoner intake. Why didn't the last guy think of that?

Globovision, which has a long history of doing battle with the Chavista government, says that the fine, which must be payed prior to any appeals, equals 7.5% of the network's 2010 gross income and puts existence on very thin ice.

A highway, a barrio, the rich, and the poor

The Panamanian government is angling to fill in the sea around the 17th century walled fortifications of Panama City's Casco Viejo in order to build a highway. Architectural images resemble the fill-in and highway that wrap around the walled city of Cartagena, Colombia. The government promises jobs for the poor and an untrammeled Casco Viejo. Residents of the old town, who include some expats, worry that this UNESCO recognized neighborhood may not survive intact. They allege that the national government is paying poor residents to protest, whipping up class divisions, all while they say the highway is a pet project of the president's in order to turn some of the former supermarket tycoon's investments into gold.

Reigning in Mexico's Military

In a country where the military is still disappearing its citizens amidst the fog of the war on drugs, the Mexican Supreme Court's unanimous decision last week ordering military personnel to be tried in civilian courts, not secretive military tribunals, for human rights violations is a step in the right direction. The tribunals proceedings are hardly transparent and result in very few convictions. Allegations of serious abuses are also on the rise. Since the beginning of President Calderon's term, the National Human Rights Commission, CNDH, has received 4,772 reports of kidnapping, torture, and murder.

However, Mexico's civilian courts are rife with massive problems of their own. Endless detentions, due process, and witness intimidation are institutionalized. The documentary film, Presunto Culpable, demonstrates the depth of the challenges facing judicial reformers and the impunity that bad actors within the security forces enjoy. What's more, top military brass are grumbling in public about the Court's decision, pinning allegations of murder and kidnapping on drug gangs seeking to, in the words of Secretary of the Navy Admiral Mariano Francisco Saynez, "damage the image of our institutions."

The case of Rene Jasso Maldonado belies the Navy Secretary's assertion. Jasso's home in Monterrey was raided in June and he was taken from his family. He has not been seen since. The New York Times clearly states that it was the military who conducted the raid yet they, and the state police, claim they were not in the area and don't have their son. The family flatly denies that the raid and kidnapping could have been the work of a drug gang posing as the military. His brother claims that, "they would have wiped out the witnesses."

The Court's ruling is a first step. Beyond the massive reforms needed within civilian courts is a plan to quickly move existing cases out of the military tribunals and free up courts to open new cases. Apparently, a process has not yet been unveiled and the military's full cooperation is doubtful. President Calderon and Congress should move to create a special civilian court to hear cases of alleged violations committed against Mexican citizens by members of the military sworn to protect them. This though would be further than Calderon has been willing to move thus far. His military campaign has been mostly popular with Mexicans and his full recognition of the military abuses would cut against his strategy and public statements.

Prison Reform al estilo Chavez

Last week Presidente Hugo Chavez appointed Iris Varela, a PSUV diputado known as La Comandante Fosforito (Commander Firecracker), to be his new prisons minister. This follows the month-long stand-off between Venezuelan security forces and inmates at the wretched El Rodeo I and II prisons. Reports from independent media and watchdog groups claim that between 30-60 prisoners and guards were killed in the unrest. For its part, the Chavez government countered through its interior minister that, "Fortunately, the massacres they talked about in headlines occurred only in the minds of these people who look down on the masses and hate the inmates." So utterly constructive Señor Ministro.

The Miami Herald reported back in July about Venezuela's prison system:

"The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has issued “provisional measures” against seven of Venezuela’s 33 prisons, including Rodeo II, citing the government for dangerous overcrowding and failing to set up controls to keep weapons and drugs out. A penal system designed for 14,000 inmates is crammed with almost 50,000. About 80 percent are awaiting trial.

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the hemisphere. But being in jail is particularly deadly. In 2010 there were 466 prison murders and almost 1,000 assaults, according to the IACHR. And more than 4,500 inmates have been killed in the last decade. By comparison, the U.S. Bureau of Prisons reported 15 homicides in 2010 — that in a prisoner population four-times larger than Venezuela’s."

Varela announced today that she plans to release up 40% of Venezuela's inmates, over 20,00 of them. Fine. Overcrowding is an obvious problem and has contributed to an institution rife with human rights violations and deadly violence. But like everything else in Chavez' Venezuela, this will be accomplished through the prerogative of the claudillo and that of his circle of appointed compadres. The rough and tumble Varela threatened, "Si un juez me pone una traba, le digo a la presidenta del TSJ que lo saque del cargo," (if a judge gets in my way, I'll tell the president of the Supreme Court to strip them of their office).

What a wonderful endorsement of the rule of law and the balance of powers.

And why isn't Varela the one in prison herself? She has a record of bloodying up opposition diputados and intimidating journalists. Witness her inexcusable harassment of the journalist and politician Gustavo Azócar, a former prisoner of conscience from the state of Tachira and a man still under threat from the capricious justice system of Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez Pulls A Steve Jobs

After an abnormally long stay in Cuba, and plenty of denying and spinning, Hugo Chavez admitted last night that he is being treated for cancer. In his speech, he did not say when he'll be returning to Venezuela or much else of anything specific.

It's important to point out that he plans to stand for reelection next year and that the opposition is desperately attempting to coalesce around the strongest candidate. Because Chavez's "revolution" is so tightly wed to the jefe himself, Venezuela is on a bit of a stand still at present. The word is that nobody seems to know much of anything.

As Venezuela's political culture is incredibly dense, bordering on the surreal, the best I can do here is recommend "Caracas Chronicles." A great blog with a clear opposition stance, but sharp in its analysis and criticism of all sides.

Sácalo!

Wow, I know he's a pretty unpopular guy but who knew a Colombian judge could just take the mayor of Bogotá, Samuel Moreno, out of office for 3 months while he looks into a growing corruption scandal? Doesn't the city council have some autonomy on such issues?

The scandal relates to the awarding of contracts for the city's once highly regarded Transmilenio bus rapid transit system, whose service has deteriorated under Moreno. In fact, the misdeed the mayor is accused of is awarding millions in contracts for more lines for the taxed system which remain unbuilt.

While the order, which Moreno says he'll comply with, states that the caretaker mayor must come from Moreno's own party, President Santos has appointed his own Education secretary to the role in the meantime. Strange dealings.

To get The Economist's take on Samuel Moreno read here.

A Terrorist's Homecoming: Little Havana & Luis Posada Carriles

Recently acquitted of lying to immigration officials about his admitted role in a string of deadly 1997 bombings targeting Cuba's tourism industry, Luis Posada Carriles, returned victorious to the cradle of anti-Castro hysteria this week, Miami's Little Havana. There, members of the old-guard community feted him and raised money for his legal bills at the Big Five Club, a sort of Cuban social club and banquet hall. He was even congratulated by the latest in a long line of Cuban-American militant members of Congress from South Florida, David Rivera (whose life, by the way, reads like a soap opera).

Posada Carriles has been in the mercenary trade for decades as sort of an ideological mirror image to Che Guevara. He was briefly jailed after the revolution and took up arms against Castro during the Bahia de Cochinos invasion, though he didn't come under fire. Strangely enough, that invasion took place 50 years ago this week. Posada Carriles then spent the next 40 years directing anti-Castro and anti-communist activities across Latin America, including as the mastermind of the Cubana flight 455 bombing, which killed 73. He confessed as much to the excellent Cuba reporter Ann Louise Bardach, who told his story in his own words in Cuba Confidential, her wild ride through Miami's exile community and its sad history with the old man and the island they left behind.

Posada Carriles is a man who has caught plenty of lucky breaks. By his own account, he has survived a couple of assassination attempts and he's escaped justice in Venezuela and Panama. His acquittal last week in El Paso on lying to the feds focuses a glaring light on the fact that the US has never tried him for the bombings themselves. The Justice Dept. shouldn't close the case on Posada Carriles. The man who boasted to Bardach that he sleeps, "like a baby," ought to be held accountable. For the integrity of our own justice system and to show Latin America that we can take steps towards dismantling our double-standard on the rule of law, Posada Carriles shouldn't be allowed to become the elder statesman of Little Havana.

Ya Basta! Who's Killing LGBT People in Honduras?

The blog blabbeando has focused attention (mine at least) on the rise of hate crime murders of LGBT people in Honduras. Read here for more information, some of which is quite graphic. The US Embassy has also stepped up the awareness and the pressure by issuing a public statement.

"Architect" of Dirty War on Trial in Argentina

Argentinean military junta leader, Jorge Videla, has gone on trial for the deaths of 31 political prisoners. Videla is already serving a life sentence after his 1990 Carlos Menem-granted presidential pardon was overturned in 2007.

Miguel Angel Ceballos is representing the families of the disappeared, who included his own father:

"They shot him in a ravine a few blocks from the jail along with other prisoners," Ceballos said. "When they came looking for my father at the prison, he knew he would be killed. He said goodbye to his friends and left a photo of our family so they could tell us what had happened."

The body was delivered to the family shortly thereafter. The other victims, lefists between 21 and 45 years old, were killed in similar fashion — "shot while trying to escape" — in the months after the coup on March 24, 1976.

La Corte Suprema se apaga la luz en el SME

The Mexican Supreme Court has finished off Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LyFC), the bloated utility that provided middling service to millions of Mexicans throughout DF, EdoMex, and portions of surrounding states. The Court's opinion, reached unanimously, states that Calderon's takeover was constitutional and within his powers to disband a "decentralized entity" when it ceases to be economically viable.

As reported last October, on the same evening that Mexico qualified for the 2010 World Cup, President Calderon sent in hundreds of troops to shut down LyFC and transfer operation to the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE). In doing so, he took on a weakened and unpopular political nemesis, the Sindicato Mexicano de Electristas (SME) and its 44,000 LyFC electricians. Many hoped, he would be so brave as to take on the corrupt teachers' union (SNTE) leadership and the drug cartels with the same degree of success. But Elba Esther Gordillo, head of the SNTE, has proven to be too valuable of an ally. The cartels are another story.