1. Will Humala be immune from the same fate he suffered in 2006 when he was overtaken by APRA's Alan Garcia in the second round? Even before his second term, Garcia was much more of an "establishment" candidate & Peruvians, mistrustful of Humala, flocked to him in the second round. In contrast, Peru has just selected two candidates with perhaps the highest negatives in the entire field. Will this fact, along with Humala's repolished, more moderate brand be enough for him to hold off Keiko?
2. Who will Keiko siphon off votes from? It's unclear what candidate's base will move to her in large numbers. Toledo led the fight against her father through much of the 90's, Kuczynski's voters, mostly found in Lima, were attracted to his technocratic skill, in contrast to Fujimori's authoritarian appeal. She never attracted more than 22% in the Ipsos-Apoyo poll and took 23% on Sunday. How much more of a share can she cut out for herself? It seems to me that there are the father and daughter die-hards, and there's the rest of Peru.
3. What narratives will Humala & Fujimori try to build for themselves and their opponent between now and June 5? Remember that in 2000, Humala led a failed coup against Fujimori in his final days in office, so there is some bad blood between the two. Also, Keiko would be well-advised to forgo mentioning el chino in public until after the election, the perception is already firmly rooted that she is seeking the presidency in order to pardon her father...a wish shared only by her father's diehards. Lastly, the Chavez factor; will Humala be able to shed the alliance with Chavez, which he worked hard to create during the 2006 election?
No comments:
Post a Comment