El fin de Uribismo o solo de Uribe?

The Constitutional Court of Colombia has ruled that Alvaro Uribe cannot vie for a third presidential term. Let's back up for a moment. In 2005, Uribe pushed through changes to the constitution in order to run for a second term. Although this second term was marked by wiretapping, bribery, and paramilitary scandals, violence decreased and his popularity remained high.

Now Uribe, one of the strongest US allies in the hemisphere, has said he will accept the decision of the court and start grooming a successor for the May 30 vote (and a June run-off). He favors Juan Manuel Santos, the ultimate insider, who stepped down as defense minister last May. His family looms large in Colombian politics and he helped found Uribe's political party which has held a working coalition together throughout his two terms.

This is a positive development for Colombian democracy, whoever the next president is. For better or worse, Colombia need to extend security to its entire population through stronger institutions not the will and political might of one man.

La Impunidad

Within the past several days, two disturbing incidents occurred across Latin America which underscore the profound challenges for the rule of law and the struggle against impunity. Following the military operation in Mexico that resulted in the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva, one of the country's three most powerful narcos, questions were raised about photographs that showed the body in a disrespectful manner echoing the calling cards of murders committed by the narcos themselves.

One member of the Mexican Navy was killed in that operation and on Tuesday morning Beltran Leyva's cartel sought revenge. Hours after the family of that fallen soldier buried their son at a funeral attended by President Calderon they were killed by hitmen aligned with Los Zetas. Four people have now been arrested and it appears that members of the Tabasco state police force, where the family lived, were also involved.

Javier Ibarrola had this to say in an L.A. Times article, "We are not facing a criminal group but a corps of combatants who are going to exact revenge and take territory from the government. The government is not prepared for this. Presidential speeches do not scare them."

The second incident occurred in Colombia. There, the governor of the state of Caqueta was abducted and found dead less than a day later. Luis Francisco Cuellar had been kidnapped on four previous occasions. He appeared with President Uribe as recently as this past Saturday. Ten assailants, presumably FARC members, killed one guard, injured others, and used grenades to gain entry into Cuellar's residence.

Both of these attacks, on two targets with distinctly different public profiles, demonstrate that Mexico and Colombia's success in rolling back these destabilizing elements has not had a significant impact on their ability to wage high-profile operations. The narcos, and to a lesser extent, FARC, have used fear in unprecedented ways to preserve their power. Gruesome murders and indiscriminate violence against journalists and other members of society not involved in government or security have abetted their sense of impunity.

These groups have also benefited from the deep levels of mistrust that many Colombians and Mexicans have in their governments. Whether it is the complicity of politicians or members of the security apparatus (from the highest levels down to rank and file police officers) in Mexico's drug trade or Colombian officials implicated in violence committed by paramilitary groups, entrenched corruption in these countries has stifled the popular support for not just the objectives of these campaigns against criminal activity, but for the methods and individuals waging them. The impunity afforded to narcos and rebel groups across Latin America will be protected as long as this critical support is lacking.

A promising sign from Colombia

DAS, Colombia's Administrative Security Department, and perhaps the largest intelligence agency in Latin America is to be scrapped.

Alas, Uribe is sounding more and more like Chavez and Morales blaming the DAS scandal and accusations of his involvement on secret criminal elements bent on the destruction of Colombia. Maybe it was the swine flu. Will this still growing scandal weaken his plan for a third term?

Just what has Colombia done to earn such a close partnership with the US?

There are many questions about Colombia's place in the US orbit these days. This seemingly democratic country, and strong US ally, has one of the poorest human rights records in the Americas and yet they have continuously lucked out on being at the right place at the right time on the war on drugs . What have they done, in fact, to earn a free trade agreement? And just what does an Administrative Security Department do apart from conducting political killings, selling intelligence to the highest bidder, and indiscriminate wiretapping in a country where such a practice is illegal? 

Lastly one would like to know, what more must a country whose president has scrubbed the constitution for a second time in order to run for president and whose own government is complicit in the deaths of scores of trade unionists and human rights activists do get on the bad side of the Obama administration? Apparently a lot more:

Ian C. Kelly, a State Department spokesman, said last week that the accusations of illegal wiretapping were “troubling and unacceptable.” But in the same statement, he said Colombia’s human rights record was satisfactory enough to meet standards allowing Mr. Uribe’s government to receive all of the military assistance included in the $545 million in American aid that Colombia was set to receive this year.

Constitutional Amendments to Extend the Presidency, Not Just for Latin America's Lefties!

US ally and Colombian president, Alvaro Uribe has pushed legislation through both houses of congress that will allow him to ask the country for a third term in office. This is the second time the constitution has been changed to allow Uribe to seek another four years in office. 

Andres Oppenheimer cites, as bad omens, two examples of Latin America leaders who pushed for third terms only to see their countries endure economic and rule of law crisis: Carlos Menem of Argentina and Alberto Fujimori of Peru. Both have been under various forms of detention since leaving office and Fujimori will most likely die in the prison where he now sits.

Uribe's sky-high popularity will not last and he could very well see his effectiveness blunted during a third term if Colombians come to grips that their president is a mere mortal, unable to finish off the FARC, the paramilitaries, make peace with Venezuela and achieve a trade pact with the US all while improving the standard of living for Colombia's poor.