All Chavez, all the time

President in waiting, Nicolas Maduro: "Chavez, Chavez, Chavez..."

Para el pueblo venozalano

Biggest winners tonight

Cuba dodged a bullet tonight that would have resulted in a major shock to its economy not felt since the Período especial that was dropped on the island like a Steinway piano in 1991.

Chavez for 6 more

7,444,082 votes to 6,151,544.

54%-45%.

Venezuela votes, cont.

All elections are a choice. Will Venezuela choose the Brazilian model proposed by Capriles? Francisco Toro takes to the NYT:

"Brazil’s remarkable success in reducing poverty speaks for itself. Building on a foundation of macroeconomic stability and stable democratic institutions, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, oversaw the most remarkable period of social mobility in Latin America’s living memory.

As millions of Brazilians rose into the middle class, Mr. Chávez’s autocratic excesses came to look unnecessary and inexcusable to Venezuelans. Mr. da Silva and his successor, Dilma Rousseff, have shown that a country does not need to stack the courts, purge the army and politicize the central bank to fight poverty. Brazil proves that point, quietly, day in and day out."

Venezuela votes, cont.

Como van las cosas hoy? From a friend in Caracas...

"Hasta ahora todo bien, alta participación y pocas irregularidades. Las mesas cierran en dos horas, esperamos comenzar a saber resultados preliminares en 4 o 5 horas.

Gracias por estar pendiente, un abrazo!"

Venezuela votes

...In New Orleans. When Venezuela shuttered its consulate in Miami, New Orleans became the closest polling place for Florida's 20,00 Venezuelans

The Underdog: Latest take on Chavez v. Capriles

From Juan Nagel of Caracas Chronicles, via Foreign Policy:

"Let's recap: We have a 14-year incumbent who is favored to win but is barely campaigning. We have a strong challenger closing the gap, but not quite there yet. We have opinion polls giving wildly differing predictions, and a public sphere where unimportant things dominate the narrative while crucial issues are left by the wayside."

Why debate if the fix is already in?

Venezuelan opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski, keeps up the pressure on Chavez to debate. Chavez keeps up his refusal. Just 17 days until election day.

Chavez's first campaign spot

First impression: where's Chavez, still in Cuba? Oh, there he is at :53. What appears at first to be an attempt to hide the candidate with the faces of ordinary Venezuelans staring hopefully into the mirror, pastoral images, arepas, and lanchitas turns into the typical 'cult of personality' thing with Chavez's name and face everywhere.

Second impression: the spot is completely positive and at nearly 3 minutes, probably a record for anything Chavez related. The refrain, "siempre te voy a amar" is clearly meant to demonstrate the bond between the president and his country. HCR has some nerve attempting to interject himself between a man and the country that loves him so. I imagine it's a very effective ad, but not if it's just on YouTube.

Consultores 21 Poll: Chavez 46%, Capriles 45%

One sector of the Venezuelan economy that has thrived during the Chavez era are shady fly-by- night polling firms. The poll results are predictably unreliable. Consultores 21 is a stand-up polling firm with almost 40 years in the business. So their poll, calling the race a statistical dead heat, is big news.