Ni Treinta Segundos Despues...

Not even 30 seconds after CNE chief Tibisay Lucena handed the election to Maduro by 235,000 votes, out of more than 15 million cast, Maduro took the stage blabbing about "el cristo Chavez" and the capture of Colombians sneaking into the country to wreak havoc. Señores y señoras, Venezuela is run by a mad man.

Is their a lightswitch for this?

Venezuelan VP, Jore Arreaza, explains just why the internet was shut off within the country, on election day no less, for several minutes. "Foreign conspirators." Is Anonymous sticking it to the Bolivarian Republic? Nevertheless, talk about awesome power. Right up there with the superhero power to be invisible.

Compatriotas no hay problemas con internet. Calma!! Fue una maniobra breve para impedir más hackeos conspiradores del exterior.

— Jorge Arreaza (@jaarreaza) April 14, 2013

All Chavez, all the time

President in waiting, Nicolas Maduro: "Chavez, Chavez, Chavez..."

Para el pueblo venozalano

Biggest winners tonight

Cuba dodged a bullet tonight that would have resulted in a major shock to its economy not felt since the Período especial that was dropped on the island like a Steinway piano in 1991.

Deep thoughts...

If Chavez lost would he have gotten a cadena?

Chavez for 6 more

7,444,082 votes to 6,151,544.

54%-45%.

Venezuela votes, cont.

All elections are a choice. Will Venezuela choose the Brazilian model proposed by Capriles? Francisco Toro takes to the NYT:

"Brazil’s remarkable success in reducing poverty speaks for itself. Building on a foundation of macroeconomic stability and stable democratic institutions, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, oversaw the most remarkable period of social mobility in Latin America’s living memory.

As millions of Brazilians rose into the middle class, Mr. Chávez’s autocratic excesses came to look unnecessary and inexcusable to Venezuelans. Mr. da Silva and his successor, Dilma Rousseff, have shown that a country does not need to stack the courts, purge the army and politicize the central bank to fight poverty. Brazil proves that point, quietly, day in and day out."

Venezuela votes, cont.

Como van las cosas hoy? From a friend in Caracas...

"Hasta ahora todo bien, alta participación y pocas irregularidades. Las mesas cierran en dos horas, esperamos comenzar a saber resultados preliminares en 4 o 5 horas.

Gracias por estar pendiente, un abrazo!"

Venezuela votes

...In New Orleans. When Venezuela shuttered its consulate in Miami, New Orleans became the closest polling place for Florida's 20,00 Venezuelans

Why debate if the fix is already in?

Venezuelan opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski, keeps up the pressure on Chavez to debate. Chavez keeps up his refusal. Just 17 days until election day.

Chavez's first campaign spot

First impression: where's Chavez, still in Cuba? Oh, there he is at :53. What appears at first to be an attempt to hide the candidate with the faces of ordinary Venezuelans staring hopefully into the mirror, pastoral images, arepas, and lanchitas turns into the typical 'cult of personality' thing with Chavez's name and face everywhere.

Second impression: the spot is completely positive and at nearly 3 minutes, probably a record for anything Chavez related. The refrain, "siempre te voy a amar" is clearly meant to demonstrate the bond between the president and his country. HCR has some nerve attempting to interject himself between a man and the country that loves him so. I imagine it's a very effective ad, but not if it's just on YouTube.

Consultores 21 Poll: Chavez 46%, Capriles 45%

One sector of the Venezuelan economy that has thrived during the Chavez era are shady fly-by- night polling firms. The poll results are predictably unreliable. Consultores 21 is a stand-up polling firm with almost 40 years in the business. So their poll, calling the race a statistical dead heat, is big news.

Qué tan enfermo está Chávez?

Is he dying? Is there a succession plan? Will he be able to campaign? Chavez isn't saying much.

Tal vez solo Dios lo sabe.

Get familiar with this guy

On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to elevate Chavez's challenger from a diverse slate of opposition candidates for the October 7 election. Even though pro-government pundits forecast a turn-out of 900,000, nearly 3 million people, some threatened with losing their job, turned out to vote.

They chose Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39-year old current governor of Miranda, Venezuela's second-most populous state, former mayor of a large Caracas suburb and former diputado. Capriles also earned his opposition cred by serving a 4 month term as a political prisoner on false charges.

HCR emerges as the leader of the most well-organized, and frankly most credible, opposition that Chavez has encountered since taking power 13 years ago. Moreover, he won with over 62% of the vote in a field of 5 candidates by maintaining a moderate tone relative to some of the more radical anti-Chavez candidates. In fact, he's mentioned Lula as a model for his own governing style.

Defeating Chavez, who maintains an approval-rating of near 60%, and a deeply passionate faction of support will not be easy. The odds are not in Capriles' favor, especially considering the government's tactics of intimidation by fiat and brute force. Nevertheless, this election will be incredibly informative on many levels about Venezuela's toleration for one-man rule and a sky-rocketing crime rate vs. an alternative narrative of pragmatism and the rule of law.

Ed. note: As mentioned before, a great starting point for the ins and outs of the election is the admittedly pro-opposition blog, Caracas Chronicles.

Dinged for "Stirring Public Anxiety"

The last of Venezuela's networks critical of Hugo Chavez's government has been fined over $2 million USD for their reporting on the Rodeo II prison riots. Globovision was sanctioned under articulo numero 27 de la Ley de Responsibilidad Social de Radio y Television for, among other things, "failing to transmit the government's point of view in a timely manner."

The June standoff between the military and prisoners, which led to the deaths of 22 people, was a massive crisis for the Venezuelan government and an international black eye which focused attention on the hellish conditions of the country's prisons. The government did not officially comment on the riots until the six days had passed and have disputed independent reports about the number killed, among other key facts.

The principal government response in the aftermath of the riots was to appoint a new prisons chief, an observably unstable legislator and close confidante of Chavez, who promptly ordered wardens to suspend all prisoner intake. Why didn't the last guy think of that?

Globovision, which has a long history of doing battle with the Chavista government, says that the fine, which must be payed prior to any appeals, equals 7.5% of the network's 2010 gross income and puts existence on very thin ice.

Prison Reform al estilo Chavez

Last week Presidente Hugo Chavez appointed Iris Varela, a PSUV diputado known as La Comandante Fosforito (Commander Firecracker), to be his new prisons minister. This follows the month-long stand-off between Venezuelan security forces and inmates at the wretched El Rodeo I and II prisons. Reports from independent media and watchdog groups claim that between 30-60 prisoners and guards were killed in the unrest. For its part, the Chavez government countered through its interior minister that, "Fortunately, the massacres they talked about in headlines occurred only in the minds of these people who look down on the masses and hate the inmates." So utterly constructive Señor Ministro.

The Miami Herald reported back in July about Venezuela's prison system:

"The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has issued “provisional measures” against seven of Venezuela’s 33 prisons, including Rodeo II, citing the government for dangerous overcrowding and failing to set up controls to keep weapons and drugs out. A penal system designed for 14,000 inmates is crammed with almost 50,000. About 80 percent are awaiting trial.

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the hemisphere. But being in jail is particularly deadly. In 2010 there were 466 prison murders and almost 1,000 assaults, according to the IACHR. And more than 4,500 inmates have been killed in the last decade. By comparison, the U.S. Bureau of Prisons reported 15 homicides in 2010 — that in a prisoner population four-times larger than Venezuela’s."

Varela announced today that she plans to release up 40% of Venezuela's inmates, over 20,00 of them. Fine. Overcrowding is an obvious problem and has contributed to an institution rife with human rights violations and deadly violence. But like everything else in Chavez' Venezuela, this will be accomplished through the prerogative of the claudillo and that of his circle of appointed compadres. The rough and tumble Varela threatened, "Si un juez me pone una traba, le digo a la presidenta del TSJ que lo saque del cargo," (if a judge gets in my way, I'll tell the president of the Supreme Court to strip them of their office).

What a wonderful endorsement of the rule of law and the balance of powers.

And why isn't Varela the one in prison herself? She has a record of bloodying up opposition diputados and intimidating journalists. Witness her inexcusable harassment of the journalist and politician Gustavo Azócar, a former prisoner of conscience from the state of Tachira and a man still under threat from the capricious justice system of Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez Pulls A Steve Jobs

After an abnormally long stay in Cuba, and plenty of denying and spinning, Hugo Chavez admitted last night that he is being treated for cancer. In his speech, he did not say when he'll be returning to Venezuela or much else of anything specific.

It's important to point out that he plans to stand for reelection next year and that the opposition is desperately attempting to coalesce around the strongest candidate. Because Chavez's "revolution" is so tightly wed to the jefe himself, Venezuela is on a bit of a stand still at present. The word is that nobody seems to know much of anything.

As Venezuela's political culture is incredibly dense, bordering on the surreal, the best I can do here is recommend "Caracas Chronicles." A great blog with a clear opposition stance, but sharp in its analysis and criticism of all sides.

Peru Votes

As in 2006, Ollanta Humala finished first in Sunday's presidential primary. He did so by improving his first round take by more than 500,000 votes over 2006 in a crowded field populated by former president Toldeo, former dictator's daughter Keiko Fujimori, former finance minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, and former Lima mayor Luis Castaneda. Some questions:

1. Will Humala be immune from the same fate he suffered in 2006 when he was overtaken by APRA's Alan Garcia in the second round? Even before his second term, Garcia was much more of an "establishment" candidate & Peruvians, mistrustful of Humala, flocked to him in the second round. In contrast, Peru has just selected two candidates with perhaps the highest negatives in the entire field. Will this fact, along with Humala's repolished, more moderate brand be enough for him to hold off Keiko?

2. Who will Keiko siphon off votes from? It's unclear what candidate's base will move to her in large numbers. Toledo led the fight against her father through much of the 90's, Kuczynski's voters, mostly found in Lima, were attracted to his technocratic skill, in contrast to Fujimori's authoritarian appeal. She never attracted more than 22% in the Ipsos-Apoyo poll and took 23% on Sunday. How much more of a share can she cut out for herself? It seems to me that there are the father and daughter die-hards, and there's the rest of Peru.

3. What narratives will Humala & Fujimori try to build for themselves and their opponent between now and June 5? Remember that in 2000, Humala led a failed coup against Fujimori in his final days in office, so there is some bad blood between the two. Also, Keiko would be well-advised to forgo mentioning el chino in public until after the election, the perception is already firmly rooted that she is seeking the presidency in order to pardon her father...a wish shared only by her father's diehards. Lastly, the Chavez factor; will Humala be able to shed the alliance with Chavez, which he worked hard to create during the 2006 election?

An Innocent Abroad

Meet Eva Golinger, Hugo Chavez's biggest fan and American muse. A quote from Simon Romero's NYT profile:

“Golinger has systematically attacked defenders of human rights and freedom of expression by presenting them as puppets of Washington, something far from the truth,” said Andrés Cañizález, who came under her scrutiny for heading a press freedom group that received financing from the National Endowment for Democracy.

“Paradoxically she uses a right established in the United States, of access to public information, which Venezuelans do not have,” Mr. Cañizález said.

And here is Golinger discussing complots on state-owned VTV. The issue for me is not the veracity of her arguments, conspiratorial as they may be. I tend to agree that there are concerted efforts trying to undermine Chavez's rule in order to beat him at the polls. But why not? Mr. Chavez has shown that he is not a genuine democrat. He has silenced media outlets and citizen opponents, incarcerated independent judges, and allowed crime to sky rocket during his 12-year rule.