Gana Humala, Keiko Reconoce Su Triunfo

Keiko concedes. Stock indexes drop over 12%. Trading suspended twice on Monday due to sell-off. Humala and Keiko will meet for a press conference at 5:30pm. Humala is given the opportunity to defy the conventional wisdom and govern with his head and his heart.

Vota El Perú, Ch'anqachi Piruw

El Mal Menor

Peru's voters begrudgingly select their next president tomorrow, yet the genuineness of the candidates democratic principles are doubted by large portions of the electorate. Gustavo Gorriti, Peru's best known investigative journalist who also helped bring down the first Fujimori, sums up the mood of peruanos as they reach the finish line of what has been a particularly long campaign since the first round was held on April 10. He states:

"It's a triage situation. You have an emergency and you choose the best alternative. In medicine, you choose the person who has the best chance to survive. Here, it's the person who offers the best alternative for democracy's survival."

Most media and business interests have broken towards Keiko, fearful of Humala's past professed radicalism. This is interesting since her father and his puppet master, Vladamiro Montesinos, relentlessly attacked any whiff of media independence during the dictatorship (Gotirri, for example, was kidnapped by Fujimori thugs and has decided to 'conditionally' back Humala).

The exception to the media cheerleading for Keiko has been the daily La Republica, who have gone with wall to wall coverage of systematic forced sterilization programs of poor women during the fujioriomato. It is a bleak and tragic story, and though Keiko has had plenty of praise for her father's regime, it's hard to pinpoint what exactly this has to do with her campaign (granted she was her father's 'first lady' after her parent's divorce). Nevertheless, La Republica has posted a well-made documentary here that incidentally explains a basic truth about Peruvian society and how it ended up with these two mostly despised candidates.

From its inception, the country has been controlled by an elite class, based exclusively in Lima. This sliver of Peruvian society maintains a deep-seeded colonial mentality that patronizes the indigenous majority and sees no reason why it should become more pluralistic and insistent on a government which includes the voices of that majority in local and national matters. Exhibit A of the consequences of such a mentality can be found here. Exhibit B will be tomorrow's winner.

Keikomentum?

A couple of polls have begun to show Keiko opening a 3-4 point lead over Ollanta Humala for the June 5 election. Her strength in Lima, where she outpaces Humala by around 20 points, is a key factor in her lead. The two candidates will debate on Sunday.

In other news, Keiko has hired Rudy Giuliani for some photo ops and presumably some motivational talks. They might get around to drafting some bullet points on improving security in Lima, maybe even the provinces. 

Then What's Left?

Keiko Fujimori: "No es mi intencion, ni la intencion de la familia indulatar a Alberto Fujimori, lo ratifico como lo he dicho en varias oportunidades...bueno, yo juro por Dios que no voy a indultar a Alberto Fujimori."

It's not my intention, nor the intention of the family to pardon Alberto Fujimori, I confirm what I've said in various opportunities...well, I swear to God that I will not pardon Alberto Fujimori."

I'm not sure that's what el chino had in mind.

El Voto Por Departamento

Humala in red, Fujimori orange, and PPK in Blue. From Living in Peru.

Peru Votes

As in 2006, Ollanta Humala finished first in Sunday's presidential primary. He did so by improving his first round take by more than 500,000 votes over 2006 in a crowded field populated by former president Toldeo, former dictator's daughter Keiko Fujimori, former finance minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, and former Lima mayor Luis Castaneda. Some questions:

1. Will Humala be immune from the same fate he suffered in 2006 when he was overtaken by APRA's Alan Garcia in the second round? Even before his second term, Garcia was much more of an "establishment" candidate & Peruvians, mistrustful of Humala, flocked to him in the second round. In contrast, Peru has just selected two candidates with perhaps the highest negatives in the entire field. Will this fact, along with Humala's repolished, more moderate brand be enough for him to hold off Keiko?

2. Who will Keiko siphon off votes from? It's unclear what candidate's base will move to her in large numbers. Toledo led the fight against her father through much of the 90's, Kuczynski's voters, mostly found in Lima, were attracted to his technocratic skill, in contrast to Fujimori's authoritarian appeal. She never attracted more than 22% in the Ipsos-Apoyo poll and took 23% on Sunday. How much more of a share can she cut out for herself? It seems to me that there are the father and daughter die-hards, and there's the rest of Peru.

3. What narratives will Humala & Fujimori try to build for themselves and their opponent between now and June 5? Remember that in 2000, Humala led a failed coup against Fujimori in his final days in office, so there is some bad blood between the two. Also, Keiko would be well-advised to forgo mentioning el chino in public until after the election, the perception is already firmly rooted that she is seeking the presidency in order to pardon her father...a wish shared only by her father's diehards. Lastly, the Chavez factor; will Humala be able to shed the alliance with Chavez, which he worked hard to create during the 2006 election?

La Revancha de Fujimorismo

Keiko Fujimori, daughter of incarcerated former Peruvian president, Alberto Fujimori, continues to position herself to run for president in 2011. How she fares with the electorate will be inexorably linked to whether the country believes her father should be sprung from prison after being convicted of multiple corruption and human rights crimes this year. She will have a hard time being asked about anything else since she has so readily invited the intrigue. 

For instance, she recently gave interviews to foreign reporters (Peruvian journalists are just as interested in the pardon angle) where she declared him to be innocent and hoped she would not have to pardon him due to his appeal, which is currently being heard.  At the moment she has the backing of 22% of voters, which places her at the front of a crowded pack, tied with Lima mayor Luis Castaneda.

Her detractors are mobilized and anti-Keiko groups have been popping up on facebook. In fact, one such group with over 13,000 fans (25,000 belong to other groups, though many join to defend Keiko and make the site ungovernable) has just been reinstated on the site. Here is a somewhat un-PC image from this group, (this is Latin America, where the ethnically Japanese Fujimori is affectionately known as "el chino") depicting a "get out of jail free" card for her father: