Capriles Goes to the Powerpoint to Prove Fraud

Capriles presented these slides at his press conference today para destacar his fraud allegations. To me, the most compelling slide is number two, which shows that Maduro somewhat incredulously chalked up more votes on Sunday than Chavez did on October 7 in a total of 1,176 different polling places out of 13,638 . As a frame of reference, Chavez received about 600,000 more votes in October than Maduro's nearly 7.6 million votes. In some of these centers Maduro racked up 943, 530, and 493% more votes than "Cristo Chavez."

Opposition & National Guard Face Off in Merida Near Election Office

Credit: Jose Antonio Rivas Leone for noticias24.com

Ni Treinta Segundos Despues...

Not even 30 seconds after CNE chief Tibisay Lucena handed the election to Maduro by 235,000 votes, out of more than 15 million cast, Maduro took the stage blabbing about "el cristo Chavez" and the capture of Colombians sneaking into the country to wreak havoc. Señores y señoras, Venezuela is run by a mad man.

Deep thoughts...

If Chavez lost would he have gotten a cadena?

Chavez for 6 more

7,444,082 votes to 6,151,544.

54%-45%.

Venezuela votes, cont.

All elections are a choice. Will Venezuela choose the Brazilian model proposed by Capriles? Francisco Toro takes to the NYT:

"Brazil’s remarkable success in reducing poverty speaks for itself. Building on a foundation of macroeconomic stability and stable democratic institutions, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, oversaw the most remarkable period of social mobility in Latin America’s living memory.

As millions of Brazilians rose into the middle class, Mr. Chávez’s autocratic excesses came to look unnecessary and inexcusable to Venezuelans. Mr. da Silva and his successor, Dilma Rousseff, have shown that a country does not need to stack the courts, purge the army and politicize the central bank to fight poverty. Brazil proves that point, quietly, day in and day out."

Venezuela votes, cont.

Como van las cosas hoy? From a friend in Caracas...

"Hasta ahora todo bien, alta participación y pocas irregularidades. Las mesas cierran en dos horas, esperamos comenzar a saber resultados preliminares en 4 o 5 horas.

Gracias por estar pendiente, un abrazo!"

Venezuela votes

...In New Orleans. When Venezuela shuttered its consulate in Miami, New Orleans became the closest polling place for Florida's 20,00 Venezuelans

The Underdog: Latest take on Chavez v. Capriles

From Juan Nagel of Caracas Chronicles, via Foreign Policy:

"Let's recap: We have a 14-year incumbent who is favored to win but is barely campaigning. We have a strong challenger closing the gap, but not quite there yet. We have opinion polls giving wildly differing predictions, and a public sphere where unimportant things dominate the narrative while crucial issues are left by the wayside."

Panderer

Paul Ryan goes to Little Havana. From the Miami Herald:

"The Republican vice presidential candidate did not mention that he once opposed the U.S. trade embargo against the island, but he pointed to his change of heart — prompted by Miami’s current and former Cuban-American Republicans in Congress, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart.

“They’ve given me a great education — lots of us in Congress — about how we need to clamp down on the Castro regime,” Ryan told supporters at the Versailles restaurant. “We will be tough on Castro, tough on Chávez.”

Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman, has voted against the embargo at least three times. The Midwest tends to see trade opportunities in agriculture with Cuba."

Why debate if the fix is already in?

Venezuelan opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski, keeps up the pressure on Chavez to debate. Chavez keeps up his refusal. Just 17 days until election day.

There are 16 people named 'Obama' running for city hall in Brazil this year

Also, five Batmans. The NY Times reports that Brazil's 'superhero' politicians are coming out from the shadows to contest seats in the upcoming municipal elections across the country. Now if we could just get them to square off in the same race we could settle the debate on who's the greatest superhero once and for all.

Fox & Calderon's failure

Putting aside 1988 for the purposes of this post, since 1994 there have been three luchadores in Mexico's electoral ring; the PAN, the PRD, and the PRI. Since that time, no single candidate has gained over 50% of the vote and Pena-Nieto won't clear the magic number tonight either. Which is to say that more voters have voted against the winning candidate than have voted for the new mandatario.

Nevertheless, neither Fox nor Calderon pushed for a run-off presidential election system. Instead they squandered their political capital on the pointless war on drugs.

'El voto es libre y secreto'; election day news

Six years ago I was in Mexico as an accredited electoral observer with Alianza Civica and Global Exchange. After several days of activities in Mexico City my team set out for San Luis Potosi, making sure to pick up some beer before la ley seca went into effect. Despite viewing deliveries of building materials, like cinder blocks, and hearing of cash payouts intended to buy votes, election day in our little area was smooth and uneventful. The next several weeks were of course anything but uneventful.

Today we've got one eye on election day developments from Los Angeles with the other on Spain v. Italy. Here are the best reads that I've gotten through today.

The Financial Times has published this useful preview. LA native, Daniel Hernandez, gives a great summary of the #yosoy132 movement here and a rundown on AMLO's second bid here.

The ins and outs of the last couple of weeks, including the lamentable capture of some young guy who's not Chapo Guzman's son and Pena-Nieto's attempts to woo the SNTE, are detailed here.

Finally, here's the Guardian's major investigative piece on the collusion between Televisa and Pena-Nieto's campaign to distort public opinion in his favor through uncritical and favorable coverage. Televisa's response and the Guardian's rather devastating reply are here and here.

The Mexican Election is 7 Days Away...Time to Catch Up!

I'm incredibly behind in covering this election and all the 'really important stuff' that has gone down in the last few months. There will be more to come on #yosoy132, AMLO's flirtations with further civil unrest should he lose the elections, Vasquez-Mota's flop, & the awesome 'more Romney than Romney' spectacle that is Enrique Pena Nieto.

But before all that let's revisit IFE's bizarre decision to toss a 'ring girl' into the May 6 debate mix. That was weird. Score 1 for Mexico's dignity! Leave it to the students to restore a little integrity with their own debate on Tuesday night that was ignored by Televisa and TV Azteca, ostensibly because Pena Nieto chose not to participate.

Vazquez-Mota not building the narrative she hoped to

First, the PAN candidate shows up 4 hours late to her own campaign kick-off at Estadio Azteca and is welcomed by streams of people heading for the exits, worn-out from sitting under the sun all day. Then on a leaked phone call, she complains that Calderon's security chiefs are tapping her phones but not Chapo Guzman's, confirming for many the perceived pact Calderon has with el mero narco. Following that, the exhausted candidate nearly faints at a rally & so decides to invite the cameras into the gym so they can see for themselves that she's, I don't know, healthy? Lastly she says that she wants to 'strengthen money-laundering.' D'oh!

All silly and forgivable on their own, but in Mexico's compacted campaign season (the election is July 1) an accumulation of missteps may leave this candidate permanently in Pena-Nieto's dust.

By the way, I went to hear Vazquez-Mota speak here in LA in early March. While she was impressively composed and sharp with her answers, she was an hour late.

Consultores 21 Poll: Chavez 46%, Capriles 45%

One sector of the Venezuelan economy that has thrived during the Chavez era are shady fly-by- night polling firms. The poll results are predictably unreliable. Consultores 21 is a stand-up polling firm with almost 40 years in the business. So their poll, calling the race a statistical dead heat, is big news.

Qué tan enfermo está Chávez?

Is he dying? Is there a succession plan? Will he be able to campaign? Chavez isn't saying much.

Tal vez solo Dios lo sabe.

Get familiar with this guy

On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to elevate Chavez's challenger from a diverse slate of opposition candidates for the October 7 election. Even though pro-government pundits forecast a turn-out of 900,000, nearly 3 million people, some threatened with losing their job, turned out to vote.

They chose Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39-year old current governor of Miranda, Venezuela's second-most populous state, former mayor of a large Caracas suburb and former diputado. Capriles also earned his opposition cred by serving a 4 month term as a political prisoner on false charges.

HCR emerges as the leader of the most well-organized, and frankly most credible, opposition that Chavez has encountered since taking power 13 years ago. Moreover, he won with over 62% of the vote in a field of 5 candidates by maintaining a moderate tone relative to some of the more radical anti-Chavez candidates. In fact, he's mentioned Lula as a model for his own governing style.

Defeating Chavez, who maintains an approval-rating of near 60%, and a deeply passionate faction of support will not be easy. The odds are not in Capriles' favor, especially considering the government's tactics of intimidation by fiat and brute force. Nevertheless, this election will be incredibly informative on many levels about Venezuela's toleration for one-man rule and a sky-rocketing crime rate vs. an alternative narrative of pragmatism and the rule of law.

Ed. note: As mentioned before, a great starting point for the ins and outs of the election is the admittedly pro-opposition blog, Caracas Chronicles.

News Headlines from the Near-Future: "Obama Reelected with 70% of the Latino Vote"

"Experts attribute margin to this moment captured at PHX Airport."