No PRI majorities in Congress

When the new congress gets to "work" in September, EPN's PRI will have at most 249 out of 500 seats in the camara de diputados and 61 out of 128 seats in the senate. Far short of the 2/3 majority to pass constitutional amendments needed to overhaul Pemex and open the company to foreign investment. The proposed reform is shaping up to be either EPN's Waterloo or Gettysburg.

It will be interesting to watch the PRI actually sweat to round up votes for once. Prior to 2000, the party held massive majorities in congress, and since then they've perfected the art of blocking legislation, along with the PRD on plenty of occasions, in order to stick it first to Fox and then to Calderon.

Fox & Calderon's failure

Putting aside 1988 for the purposes of this post, since 1994 there have been three luchadores in Mexico's electoral ring; the PAN, the PRD, and the PRI. Since that time, no single candidate has gained over 50% of the vote and Pena-Nieto won't clear the magic number tonight either. Which is to say that more voters have voted against the winning candidate than have voted for the new mandatario.

Nevertheless, neither Fox nor Calderon pushed for a run-off presidential election system. Instead they squandered their political capital on the pointless war on drugs.

Reigning in Mexico's Military

In a country where the military is still disappearing its citizens amidst the fog of the war on drugs, the Mexican Supreme Court's unanimous decision last week ordering military personnel to be tried in civilian courts, not secretive military tribunals, for human rights violations is a step in the right direction. The tribunals proceedings are hardly transparent and result in very few convictions. Allegations of serious abuses are also on the rise. Since the beginning of President Calderon's term, the National Human Rights Commission, CNDH, has received 4,772 reports of kidnapping, torture, and murder.

However, Mexico's civilian courts are rife with massive problems of their own. Endless detentions, due process, and witness intimidation are institutionalized. The documentary film, Presunto Culpable, demonstrates the depth of the challenges facing judicial reformers and the impunity that bad actors within the security forces enjoy. What's more, top military brass are grumbling in public about the Court's decision, pinning allegations of murder and kidnapping on drug gangs seeking to, in the words of Secretary of the Navy Admiral Mariano Francisco Saynez, "damage the image of our institutions."

The case of Rene Jasso Maldonado belies the Navy Secretary's assertion. Jasso's home in Monterrey was raided in June and he was taken from his family. He has not been seen since. The New York Times clearly states that it was the military who conducted the raid yet they, and the state police, claim they were not in the area and don't have their son. The family flatly denies that the raid and kidnapping could have been the work of a drug gang posing as the military. His brother claims that, "they would have wiped out the witnesses."

The Court's ruling is a first step. Beyond the massive reforms needed within civilian courts is a plan to quickly move existing cases out of the military tribunals and free up courts to open new cases. Apparently, a process has not yet been unveiled and the military's full cooperation is doubtful. President Calderon and Congress should move to create a special civilian court to hear cases of alleged violations committed against Mexican citizens by members of the military sworn to protect them. This though would be further than Calderon has been willing to move thus far. His military campaign has been mostly popular with Mexicans and his full recognition of the military abuses would cut against his strategy and public statements.

"Estamos ya en la sucesión presidencial"

La UNAM's Manuel Quijano states the obvious, with about 20 months to go, Mexico's presidential potrillos are out of the gates. EdoMex governor and heart throb, Enrique Peña Nieto, has maintained his frontrunner status, a large number of Calderon's cabinet secretaries are jockeying for position, and Marcelo Ebrad and Lopez Obrador are in an awkward dance to push the other out of the way and a clear path for the PRD nomination, one that will most likely not lead to Los Pinos.

In the meantime, Calderon has lost momentum on any chance for telecommunications or political reform due to his insistence since Day 1 to fight the narcos to the death.

¿De qué se ríe La Barbie?

Mexico captured a big fish yesterday, Texas born Edgar Valdez Villareal, inexplicably nicknamed 'La Barbie'. Once a top deputy to Arturo Beltran Leyva, who was killed by the military last year, La Barbie has been duking it out with Beltran Leyva's brother, Hector, for control of the cartel. This rivalry has put Cuernavaca and parts of Guerrero in the cross-hairs of a factional battle and has gripped the region with fear and death.

La Barbie's henchman are linked to the horrendous massacre of the family of the sole marine killed in the operation that took down Beltran Leyva last December.

One thing to note is that Calderon's government has been criticized for picking winners or cutting deals when battles for cartel control spin into the public sphere with awful repercussions for innocent victims. For instance, was Ignacio Villareal, a top deputy of 'El Chapo' Guzman killed in exchange for lessened violence in Sinaloa? Does the capture of La Barbie mean that Hector Beltran Leyva can rest easy and move his product without a meddlesome rival?

La Corte Suprema se apaga la luz en el SME

The Mexican Supreme Court has finished off Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LyFC), the bloated utility that provided middling service to millions of Mexicans throughout DF, EdoMex, and portions of surrounding states. The Court's opinion, reached unanimously, states that Calderon's takeover was constitutional and within his powers to disband a "decentralized entity" when it ceases to be economically viable.

As reported last October, on the same evening that Mexico qualified for the 2010 World Cup, President Calderon sent in hundreds of troops to shut down LyFC and transfer operation to the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE). In doing so, he took on a weakened and unpopular political nemesis, the Sindicato Mexicano de Electristas (SME) and its 44,000 LyFC electricians. Many hoped, he would be so brave as to take on the corrupt teachers' union (SNTE) leadership and the drug cartels with the same degree of success. But Elba Esther Gordillo, head of the SNTE, has proven to be too valuable of an ally. The cartels are another story.

Unsettling narco-war thought of the day

From the LA Times:

"If the fundamental institution of any state, the armed forces, can't prevail in the battle against narco-trafficking, then what is next?" asked Jose Luis Pineyro, an expert on national security at Mexico City's Autonomous Metropolitan University. "It is the last recourse." 

La Impunidad

Within the past several days, two disturbing incidents occurred across Latin America which underscore the profound challenges for the rule of law and the struggle against impunity. Following the military operation in Mexico that resulted in the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva, one of the country's three most powerful narcos, questions were raised about photographs that showed the body in a disrespectful manner echoing the calling cards of murders committed by the narcos themselves.

One member of the Mexican Navy was killed in that operation and on Tuesday morning Beltran Leyva's cartel sought revenge. Hours after the family of that fallen soldier buried their son at a funeral attended by President Calderon they were killed by hitmen aligned with Los Zetas. Four people have now been arrested and it appears that members of the Tabasco state police force, where the family lived, were also involved.

Javier Ibarrola had this to say in an L.A. Times article, "We are not facing a criminal group but a corps of combatants who are going to exact revenge and take territory from the government. The government is not prepared for this. Presidential speeches do not scare them."

The second incident occurred in Colombia. There, the governor of the state of Caqueta was abducted and found dead less than a day later. Luis Francisco Cuellar had been kidnapped on four previous occasions. He appeared with President Uribe as recently as this past Saturday. Ten assailants, presumably FARC members, killed one guard, injured others, and used grenades to gain entry into Cuellar's residence.

Both of these attacks, on two targets with distinctly different public profiles, demonstrate that Mexico and Colombia's success in rolling back these destabilizing elements has not had a significant impact on their ability to wage high-profile operations. The narcos, and to a lesser extent, FARC, have used fear in unprecedented ways to preserve their power. Gruesome murders and indiscriminate violence against journalists and other members of society not involved in government or security have abetted their sense of impunity.

These groups have also benefited from the deep levels of mistrust that many Colombians and Mexicans have in their governments. Whether it is the complicity of politicians or members of the security apparatus (from the highest levels down to rank and file police officers) in Mexico's drug trade or Colombian officials implicated in violence committed by paramilitary groups, entrenched corruption in these countries has stifled the popular support for not just the objectives of these campaigns against criminal activity, but for the methods and individuals waging them. The impunity afforded to narcos and rebel groups across Latin America will be protected as long as this critical support is lacking.

Se Apago la Luz?

Desde Mexico, DF

President Calderon launched what was essentially a military operation late Saturday night to take control of the state-owned enterprise Luz y Fuerza del Centro, the power utility for Mexico City and much of central Mexico. I saw approximately 1,000 federal police amassed along Eje Central at 11pm awaiting orders in the case that violence erupted at the utility and power was disrupted to its 25 million customers. I, and others, assumed the police presence was in response to the massive crowd that had assembled at El Angel de la Independencia following Mexico's qualification for the 2010 World Cup earlier that evening.

The president took to the airwaves on Sunday to explain his rationale. He cited the unsustainable nature of the utility, which received over $3 billion in subsidies last year, and whose powerful union, SME, has largely stifled previous reforms. He has effectively fired all 40,000 workers and pledges to only rehire 10,000. In the meantime, the national electricity commission will be running things down at LFC.

Public opinion of Calderon's move has been fairly positive, especially since the aerial shots on the evening news have shown that the lights are still on in the Valley of Mexico. Although the illuminated sign above the utility's offices reads "100 years of generating light and confidence" customers of LFC would beg to differ. They receive some of the worst service in the country in terms of the number and duration of blackouts.

The union has pledged to fight this most hostile takeover and has been joined by who else, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. They claim this move was more about demonstrating that the president retains a degree of power after the PAN suffered setbacks in the July elections. They have also wondered aloud why Calderon's criteria for breaking up LFC doesn't apply to the teacher's union and their leader, Elba Esther Gordillo, an influential ally of the president's.

Finally, La Jornada reports that the SME has published a list of entities that don't pay their light bill. If true, the list should be an embarrassment to the president whose own address is listed has one receiving a free ride. Others include numerous government offices and posh hotels in Polanco.